Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade window operates within strict regulatory boundaries set by the league. Teams may trade players during the off-season and regular season, though the deadline for trades in a given season typically falls in late October. A YES share on this market pays out if the specified player moves to a different franchise by 22 July 2026; a NO share pays if they remain with their current team or leave the league through retirement or release rather than trade. The settlement hinges on official NFL records or credible reporting consensus.

Historical precedent suggests that mid-tier and veteran players trade far more frequently than franchise cornerstones or recent high draft picks. Between 2020 and 2024, roughly 60–80 notable trades occurred annually across the league, though most involved defensive backs, linebackers, and depth players rather than star quarterbacks or elite pass-rushers. The 2% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that the named player falls into a category unlikely to be traded—either due to contract structure, performance tier, or team commitment. Comparable players with similar tenure and salary typically see trade probabilities between 1–5% over a two-year window.

Traders should monitor off-season roster moves, coaching changes, and injury updates from January through March 2026, as these periods drive most trade activity. Salary cap constraints, draft capital availability, and team performance will shape which rosters pursue upgrades. Recent reporting from ESPN and NFL Network typically breaks trade news first; official confirmation arrives via league press releases. Contract restructures or surprise releases can alter a player's trade likelihood substantially, as teams sometimes clear cap space rather than move established talent.

Methodology

We track Which NFL players will be traded? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.