How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is the critical chokepoint for global oil flows, and this market asks how many commercial vessels successfully crossed it during the week of 6 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the final count meets or exceeds the settlement threshold, while a NO share wins if it falls below. With an 82% crowd-implied probability for YES, traders are betting that shipping traffic has returned to normal levels following the recent geopolitical shift.

Historical context suggests this high probability is well-founded. After a near-total blockade during the Iran war, which halted traffic for weeks and spiked oil prices, a US–Iran agreement signed on 17 June guaranteed immediate resumption of commercial navigation [1]. By late June, vessel counts surged to 25 in a single day, the highest volume since April, signalling a robust recovery rather than a tentative trickle [1]. This rebound from a near-standstill provides a strong baseline for expecting continued high transit numbers in early July [2].

Traders should monitor the IMF Portwatch finalisation schedule, as data only counts once the next day’s point is available [10]. Key catalysts include any new diplomatic announcements regarding the interim deal and real-time tanker traffic reports from marine intelligence agencies like AXSMarine [1]. While the agreement has restored flow, traders must watch for potential asymmetric disruptions, such as drone or missile threats, which Iran could still utilise to maintain deterrence despite the peace deal [5]. The market resolves once data for 12 July is finalized, confirming the week’s total.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.