Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. As of early June 2026, outbound commercial traffic has halted completely, with zero verified transits over the past 72 hours and no crude tankers moving. This unprecedented standstill has stranded over 150 vessels, including tankers and bulk carriers, while pushing war-risk insurance premiums to more than 16 times normal rates and cutting throughput to under 2% of typical daily volume. The disruption threatens approximately 21% of the world’s oil supply, with daily economic costs exceeding $4 billion.

A YES share in this market pays out if transit calls reach 60 per day (7-day average) by 31 August 2026; a NO share pays if that threshold is never met. The current 21% crowd-implied probability reflects the severity of the bottleneck, yet historical precedent shows the strait can reopen briefly. It was reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, suggesting volatility in access. Traders should watch for announcements from Iran and the US regarding the waterway deal, as well as shifts in Brent crude prices and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 14 extra transit days. Recent Reuters reporting noted commercial traffic rose sharply after the US–Iran agreement to reopen the strait, indicating that diplomatic progress remains the primary catalyst for normalisation [8].

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Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.