Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, has seen commercial vessel traffic collapse by over 95% since early March 2026, with oil tankers almost entirely absent. This market asks whether any ship will transit the strait on a given day before July 31, 2026, with the crowd currently pricing a 46% chance of “Yes”. A YES share pays out if the condition is met; a NO share pays out if it is not. The settlement relies on finalized daily transit calls reported by IMF PortWatch, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.

Historically, the strait averaged 75–125 daily crossings before the Iran war, but recent data shows no meaningful recovery, with cumulative supply shortfalls exceeding 300 million barrels[1]. While some reports suggest Iran has approved passage for GCC and European vessels at a $2 million fee, commercial traffic remains in single digits, and most detected transits involve Iran-linked ships using spoofed signals to avoid targeting[2]. This stark contrast between pre-war volumes and current standstills frames the low probability of a sudden rebound.

Traders should monitor Iran’s next regional move, any official announcements on fee waivers, and scheduled diplomatic talks that could ease restrictions. Recent marine traffic data indicates hundreds of ships are still stuck waiting near the strait, with global oil trade facing major delays due to ongoing obstructions[2]. Any shift in Iran’s stance—such as expanding the controlled route or reducing fees—could act as a catalyst for renewed transit activity, though current trends suggest continued stagnation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.