GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **YES** share pays out if OpenAI makes a model explicitly called GPT-6 publicly available by the settlement deadline; a **NO** share pays if that does not happen, including if the model stays in private testing or is released under a different name. In practical terms, this market is not asking whether OpenAI ships something advanced, but whether it uses the GPT-6 label and opens access to the general public.

The best framing comes from OpenAI’s recent release pattern. A model many watchers expected to become GPT-6 instead shipped on 23 April 2026 as GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, which pushed the next numbered release further out.[1][12][14] That matters because prediction markets price the difference between a real launch and a near miss: a public preview, API-only access, or a renamed family model would not settle this market **Yes** unless OpenAI clearly brands it GPT-6 and makes it broadly available.[1][12][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are official product announcements, model-catalog updates, and any sign of a public rollout window. OpenAI has not published an architecture, pricing sheet, or launch date for GPT-6 in the material reviewed here, and several sources note only that it would not arrive in 2025, leaving 2026 timing uncertain.[1][8][10][15] The market’s current 0% implied probability suggests participants see no credible public signal yet; that can change quickly if OpenAI posts a named launch on ChatGPT or the API, but not on rumours, closed betas, or leaked codenames.[1][12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.