US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

A **YES** share pays out if the United States goes a full 14 days without a qualifying military action against Iran before 31 August 2026; a **NO** share pays out if no such uninterrupted window occurs. In practice, that means traders are not betting on a permanent peace deal, but on whether the ceasefire clock can run for two straight weeks under the market’s rules, which start the count the day after the most recent qualifying action or from market creation if none has happened.[15]

The current 0% implied probability should be read against a year of highly fragile U.S.-Iran de-escalation. Markets rallied after a temporary ceasefire was announced in April, but reporting at the time stressed that trust was thin and the agreement was widely viewed as vulnerable to renewed escalation.[2][13] Prediction-market coverage also showed how quickly sentiment can swing around formal announcements: earlier ceasefire contracts initially resolved to “yes” before being disputed when later developments cast doubt on whether the truce was durable.[3] That history matters here because this market is not about rhetoric or backchannel contacts; it turns only on the absence of qualifying military action for the full 14-day measurement period.[15]

Traders will watch for any official statements from Washington or Tehran, movements in U.S. force posture, and incidents in regional waterways or airspace that could trigger a qualifying action or reset the clock. Any shift in the broader diplomatic track also matters, including follow-on talks linked to the mid-June memorandum described by Polymarket, which opened a 60-day negotiation window on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.[5] Recent market commentary has also pointed to persistent “war premium” effects in oil and risk assets, suggesting headline risk remains high whenever ceasefire compliance is questioned.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.