Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), located roughly 40 kilometres south-west of Tehran, must see at least one aircraft take off between now and 1 July 2026 for this market to resolve YES. A prediction market share in YES means you believe that threshold will be met; a NO share bets it won't. The resolution hinges on actual takeoff—not gate departure or announcements of reopening—with FlightAware serving as the primary verification source, supplemented by official Iranian aviation records.

IKA has operated intermittently over the past decade, with closures tied to geopolitical tensions, sanctions regimes, and infrastructure constraints. The airport handled roughly 7 million passengers annually before 2018 sanctions escalated, then contracted sharply. Comparable regional hubs facing similar pressures—such as Baghdad International or Beirut-Rafic Hariri—have maintained skeleton schedules even during severe disruptions, suggesting that complete cessation of departures over an 18-month window would be exceptional rather than routine. The 100% crowd probability reflects confidence that at least minimal commercial or state operations will resume or continue.

Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation regarding sanctions relief, fleet maintenance schedules, and bilateral air agreements—particularly any thaw in US or European restrictions that would unlock financing for fuel and spare parts. Recent reporting on Iranian aviation has focused on aircraft shortages and ageing fleets rather than terminal closure, suggesting operational capacity exists if diplomatic conditions permit. Scheduled carrier operations from IKA depend heavily on whether international routes reopen; domestic flights to provincial cities face fewer external barriers and represent a lower threshold for YES resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.