Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether the U.S. Congress will formally pass a resolution to limit military action against Iran before the end of June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not. This specific market requires both the House and Senate to pass the same bill restricting hostilities, strikes, or deployments in the US/Israel–Iran conflict by 30 June 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Historically, Congress has struggled to advance war powers resolutions during active conflicts, though recent months show a shift. The House succeeded for the first time in directing President Trump to seek congressional authorisation for Iran operations in a 215–208 vote, marking the fourth attempt [3]. The Senate also approved a similar resolution for the first time, with 50 senators supporting the measure to end the war, including four Republicans joining Democrats [5][6]. Despite these milestones, repeated Senate attempts to advance the bill have faced procedural hurdles, suggesting the current 100% crowd-implied probability may be overly confident given past legislative friction [1].

Traders should monitor upcoming Senate procedural votes, as the chamber is expected to take its next vote on the war powers resolution it advanced last month [3]. Key catalysts include the President’s response to the 30-day clock that commenced on 28 February 2026, which directs him to end military action unless Congress authorises force [2]. Any announcement from the White House regarding ground troop deployment or congressional briefing schedules will be critical, as the resolution explicitly precludes ground troops without explicit congressional authority [2]. Recent coverage confirms the Senate is set to vote again soon, making this the decisive window for the market’s outcome [3][6].

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Methodology

This page reviews Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.