Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.

Next Press Secretary? — Probability & Odds | Prediction Market 2026

Name: Next Press Secretary?
Start: 2026-10-16T18:13:00.000Z
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	50%	50%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	See live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	50%	50%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	See live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	See live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	See live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Candidate U	50%
Candidate V	50%
Candidate W	50%
Candidate X	50%
Candidate Y	50%
Candidate Z	50%
Candidate AA	50%
Candidate AB	50%
Candidate AC	50%
Candidate AD	50%
Candidate AE	50%
Candidate AF	50%
Candidate AG	50%
Candidate AH	50%
Candidate AI	50%
Candidate AJ	50%
Candidate AK	50%
Candidate AL	50%
Candidate AM	50%
Candidate AN	50%
Candidate AO	50%
Candidate AP	50%
Candidate AQ	50%
Candidate AR	50%
Candidate AS	50%
Candidate AT	50%
Candidate AU	50%
Candidate AV	50%
Candidate AW	50%
Candidate AX	50%
Candidate AY	50%
Candidate AZ	50%
Candidate BA	50%
Candidate BB	50%
Candidate BC	50%
Candidate BD	50%
Candidate BE	50%
Candidate BF	50%
Candidate BG	50%
Candidate BH	50%
Candidate BI	50%
Candidate BJ	50%
Candidate BK	50%
Candidate BL	50%
Candidate BM	50%
Candidate BN	50%
Candidate BO	50%
Candidate BP	50%
Candidate BQ	50%
Candidate BR	50%
Candidate BS	50%
Candidate BT	50%
Candidate BU	50%
Candidate BV	50%
Candidate BW	50%
Candidate BX	50%
Candidate BY	50%
Candidate BZ	50%
Candidate CA	50%
Candidate CB	50%
Candidate CC	50%
Candidate CD	50%
Candidate CE	50%
Candidate CF	50%
Candidate CG	50%
Candidate CH	50%
Candidate CI	50%
Other	50%
Scott Jennings	16%
Kayleigh McEnany	15%
Laura Loomer	12%
Anna Kelly	10%
Kaelan Dorr	10%
Harrison Fields	10%
Spencer Pratt	10%
Tricia McLaughlin	9%
Monica Crowley	6%
Alina Habba	6%
Taylor Rogers	5%
Hogan Gidley	5%
Natalie Harp	5%
Lauren Bis	4%
Ari Fleischer	4%
Lara Trump	4%
Beni Rae Harmony	4%
Katie Pavlich	3%
Katie Miller	3%
Maria Bartiromo	3%
Elizabeth Pipko	3%
Karoline Leavitt	3%
Margo Martin	2%
Liz Huston	2%
Kari Lake	2%
Rachel Campos-Duffy	2%
Jake Paul	2%
Kush Desai	1%
Pat Adams	1%
Matthew Boyle	1%
Steven Cheung	1%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to next press secretary?. This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM…

Methodology

This page reviews Next Press Secretary? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?: Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?: UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?: UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporterand

Emma RobertsFinancial Journalist

Trade Next Press Secretary? on Prediction Market UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Next Press Secretary?

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Next Press Secretary? on Prediction Market UK

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