Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A **YES** share pays out if the named person attends the next official US–Iran diplomatic meeting before the market deadline; a **NO** share pays if they do not. In practice, that means traders are pricing the chance that a real, authorised encounter happens rather than a lower-profile contact through intermediaries, which the market rules exclude.

The baseline for reading a **0%** crowd price is that formal US–Iran diplomacy is rare and often indirect. The two countries have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1980, and recent engagement has mostly come through mediated talks in Oman, including high-level meetings in April 2025 and indirect talks in Muscat in February 2026.[3][2] That history makes attendance by a specific individual hard to price unless there is already a published delegation list or a confirmed summit format. Recent conflict has also mattered: the June 2026 halt in hostilities was presented as a 60-day window for further negotiation, which may increase the odds of some meeting, but not necessarily the attendance of any one named figure.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are official announcements from Washington, Tehran, Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan; publication of a venue, date, or agenda; and any confirmation of who will represent each side. Because the market resolves only on the *next diplomatic meeting*, a mediated session counts only if the named attendee is actually present in an official capacity, so delegation composition is the key variable. Coverage of the 2025–2026 talks shows that Oman has been the recurring host and mediator, which means any new Muscat-style format would be the most direct sign to watch.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.