Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

A YES share in this market pays out if Iran's Islamic Republic—the system of governance centred on the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and Revolutionary Guards—loses effective control over the country before 30 June 2026. A NO share pays if the regime remains substantially intact. The resolution hinges on broad, documented evidence that core state structures have been dissolved or replaced, not merely weakened or contested. With roughly 18 months until settlement, the crowd assigns only a 1% probability to such a collapse.

Historical precedent suggests regime change in Iran occurs through prolonged institutional erosion rather than sudden rupture. The 1979 revolution took months to unfold despite rapid final acceleration; the Shah's fall involved military defection, clerical mobilisation, and cascading strikes. More recent upheavals—the 2009 Green Movement, 2019–2020 protest cycles—saw significant unrest but no breach of security apparatus loyalty or loss of territorial control. The IRGC's institutional entrenchment, combined with Iran's geographic size and fragmented opposition, has historically raised the threshold for regime collapse substantially above what short-term discontent alone can achieve.

Near-term catalysts centre on economic deterioration, sanctions enforcement, and military developments. Inflation and currency instability have persisted through 2024–2025; any sharp acceleration could strain state capacity. Regional escalation involving Israel or Gulf powers might fracture elite consensus or trigger mass mobilisation. Succession dynamics around the Supreme Leader remain opaque but could create institutional vulnerability if handled poorly. Credible reporting of mass defection within security forces, loss of provincial control, or formal dissolution of governing bodies would be required to trigger resolution; isolated protests or leadership statements do not meet the threshold.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.