FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 TOUR Championship will determine the season-long FedEx Cup winner, with the tournament scheduled for late August. A YES share represents a bet that a specific named player will claim that title; a NO share bets they will not. If the listed player withdraws, is disqualified, or fails to compete, the market resolves NO immediately. Should an unlisted player win instead, the market resolves to "Other"—a third outcome that protects traders from being penalised if an unexpected victor emerges.

The 22% implied probability reflects typical odds for a single player in a field where roughly 30 competitors qualify for the TOUR Championship. Historical FedEx Cup winners have clustered among the season's top earners and consistent performers; Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and similar elite-ranked players have dominated recent years. However, the tournament's format—a staggered-start system where leading money-earners begin with advantages—means that form, injury status, and momentum in the weeks preceding late August matter substantially. Traders should monitor PGA Tour earnings leaderboards and official world rankings through summer 2026.

Key catalysts include the player's performance in major championships and regular tour events during the 2025–26 season, any announced injuries or withdrawals, and the official TOUR Championship field announcement in August 2026. Course conditions at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta and recent form in comparable events will influence final odds. The settlement window closes at the end of August 2026, giving traders a defined deadline to track developments.

Methodology

We track FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.