Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Chicago Cubs will travel to Colorado to face the Rockies in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture scheduled for 8:40 PM Eastern Time. This market allows traders to purchase shares representing either team's victory. A YES share pays out if the Cubs win; a NO share pays out if the Rockies win. The settlement window extends to 17 June, allowing time for any postponements to be rescheduled. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests near-certainty among traders that the Cubs will prevail, though this extreme reading warrants scrutiny given the inherent unpredictability of single-game outcomes in baseball.

Historical context shows that Cubs-Rockies matchups have favoured Chicago in recent seasons, though Colorado's home-field advantage at Coors Field—where thin air typically inflates run-scoring—remains a material factor. The Cubs' recent performance trajectory, pitching depth, and injury status will shape the actual matchup dynamics. Traders should monitor roster announcements in the week preceding the game, particularly any late-breaking injuries to key players or unexpected lineup adjustments. Weather conditions at Coors Field, including temperature and wind direction, can significantly influence offensive output and should be tracked as game day approaches.

The 100% probability reading appears anomalous for a single-game event where outcomes depend on live performance variables. Traders entering at this price face limited upside on YES shares and substantial downside risk if the Rockies secure a win. Liquidity constraints or data-entry errors may explain the extreme reading; verification against other prediction platforms is advisable before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.