Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-third of global maritime oil trade. When geopolitical tensions or military incidents disrupt shipping lanes, transit volumes drop sharply. This market asks whether daily ship arrivals—measured as a seven-day rolling average by the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch service—will recover to 60 or above by the end of 2026. A YES share pays out if that threshold is hit at any point during the settlement window; a NO share pays out if it never reaches that level. The metric includes container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and general cargo vessels tracked by IMF data.

The 52% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about regional stability over the next two years. Historical precedent matters: the strait saw sustained disruptions during 2019–2020 (tanker attacks, US–Iran tensions) and again in 2024 following Houthi missile strikes on shipping. Pre-disruption baseline transit calls typically ranged between 70 and 90 daily arrivals. Recovery timelines have varied—some incidents triggered month-long slowdowns, whilst others resolved within weeks once insurance and security protocols stabilised. The current probability suggests traders view a return to normal as plausible but not certain.

Catalysts to monitor include announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, statements from Iran or Gulf state governments, and any escalation in Red Sea or Persian Gulf incidents. The IMF publishes Portwatch data with a lag, so traders will need to track shipping news from Lloyd's List and Reuters to anticipate whether the 60-call threshold is approaching. Broader oil price movements and global recession risk also influence shipping demand independently of geopolitical factors.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.