How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

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Market context

Between 1 and 7 June 2026, the Earth will experience seismic activity across its tectonic zones. This market asks whether at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or above will occur during that seven-day window anywhere globally. A YES share pays out if the USGS records one or more quakes at that threshold; a NO share pays if none are recorded. The settlement source is the official USGS Earthquake Hazards Program database, which catalogues all significant seismic events in near-real time.

Historically, magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur with measurable frequency. The USGS reports roughly 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0–5.9 per year globally, and roughly 2 of magnitude 6.0–6.9. This averages to approximately one event every 24 days at the 5.5+ threshold, though distribution is uneven—some weeks see none, others see multiple. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects either an expectation of unusual seismic quiescence during this specific week or insufficient market participation to price the underlying base rate accurately.

Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS earthquake alerts and regional seismic bulletins from agencies including the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. Tectonic hotspots—the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Alpine-Himalayan belt, and mid-ocean ridges—warrant particular attention. No scheduled geological events trigger this market; seismic activity is inherently unpredictable on weekly timescales, making historical frequency the primary analytical tool for assessing the probability that a 5.5+ event will occur during this seven-day period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.