Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade and remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways. This market asks whether daily ship transits through the strait will return to a baseline of 60 or more vessels per day—measured as a seven-day moving average—by the end of 2026. A YES share pays out if that threshold is reached at any point before the deadline; a NO share pays out if it never does. The resolution hinges entirely on data published by IMF Portwatch, which tracks container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and general cargo vessels.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz averaged 80–90 daily calls before regional tensions escalated in 2023–2024. The 60-call threshold represents a materially reduced but functional baseline, roughly 70% of pre-disruption norms. Previous episodes of closure or severe congestion—including the 2022 Suez blockage and the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War tanker war—saw recovery timescales of weeks to months once immediate threats receded. The current 77% implied probability reflects trader confidence that either geopolitical conditions will stabilise or alternative routing will become less economically necessary within two years.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US, Iran, and Gulf state navies regarding freedom-of-navigation operations and sanctions enforcement. Recent reports from maritime insurers and shipping indices, including the Baltic Exchange, indicate modest uptick in Hormuz transits since mid-2024. The market's outcome depends on whether this trend continues and whether IMF Portwatch's data capture remains consistent. Any major escalation in regional conflict or blockade declarations would pressure the YES case downward; conversely, formal de-escalation agreements or sanctions relief could accelerate recovery.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.