Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 11:00 PM ET, Egypt and IR Iran will face off in a decisive FIFA World Cup Group G match at Seattle Stadium, where the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time determines the outcome. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the match ends with the specific exact score listed in the contract; a NO share bets that any other score occurs, including draws or different goal margins. With the crowd-implied probability at 16% for YES, traders are pricing in a relatively narrow chance of that precise result, reflecting the competitive balance between two nations with strong recent form.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages often settle at low probabilities, typically between 10% and 20%, unless one side is a dominant favourite. In similar fixtures, such as Egypt’s 3-1 victory over New Zealand on 22 June, the exact score was priced at 18% before the match, aligning closely with today’s 16% figure. Opta’s supercomputer simulations show Egypt defeating Iran in 44.1% of 25,000 scenarios, with draws at 31.3% and Iran wins at 24.6%, suggesting no single exact score is overwhelmingly likely [2]. This distribution supports the current pricing, as the most probable outcomes are still broad categories rather than specific scores.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury news, particularly for Egypt’s attacking players, as their clinical edge could shift the scoreline. The referee, Szymon Marciniak, is known for strict disciplinary control, which may influence stoppage time and goal frequency [4]. Recent training footage released on 25 June shows both teams in peak condition, with Egypt’s stars appearing sharp ahead of the clash [6]. Any announcement of a key player’s absence, such as a striker or defender, would be a critical catalyst to watch before the settlement window closes at 03:00 UTC on 27 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.