France vs. Senegal - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France and Senegal will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 3:00 PM ET. This market resolves YES only if the match ends with an exact scoreline matching one of the pre-listed outcomes; any other final score triggers resolution to "Any Other Score." A YES share represents a bet that one specific scoreline will occur; a NO share bets that the final result will be something different. The 6% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting an exact score—even heavily favoured outcomes rarely exceed 15–20% odds in such markets, since dozens of plausible results exist.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments settle YES roughly 5–12% of the time across all listed options combined. France, ranked fourth globally as of early 2025, typically generates higher implied probabilities for scorelines like 2–0 or 2–1 victories. Senegal, ranked 18th, has shown defensive resilience in recent qualifiers but faces a significant gap in attacking depth. The 6% probability here likely corresponds to a mid-range outcome (perhaps 1–1 or 2–1 France); outcomes at the extremes (0–0 or 4–0) trade lower.

Traders should monitor team news from late May onwards, particularly injury updates to France's attacking options and Senegal's goalkeeper situation. Fixture congestion in the days before 16 June may affect squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions in North America—heat and humidity in some venues—can influence goal-scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours after kick-off for final score confirmation.

Methodology

We track France vs. Senegal - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.