Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - First Team to Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany’s meeting with Côte d’Ivoire has already produced a useful lesson in how first-to-score markets work: the final result can differ sharply from the opening scorer. Germany won 2-1 in the group game, but Ivory Coast struck first and led at half-time before Deniz Undav turned the match with a late brace, including a winner in the 94th minute.[1][2][3] In a market like this, a **YES** share on one team means that team is expected to score first; a **NO** share means it is expected *not* to be the first scorer. If neither side scores in normal time plus stoppage time, the market settles to **Neither** under the stated rules.

The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests the market is heavily concentrated, but it should be read as a consensus price rather than a certainty. Recent comparable evidence from the same fixture shows both teams can create scoring chances, and Germany can still win even after conceding first.[1][4] That matters because first goal markets are usually driven by early-match pace, finishing quality, and whether both coaches name attack-minded line-ups, not just by who wins the match.

Traders should watch confirmed team news, late injuries, and whether either side rests players or changes shape before kick-off, because those updates can alter which team is likelier to score first. The market also depends on the match actually being played on schedule; if it is postponed, it stays open until completion, so any delay in the fixture would be relevant to settlement timing.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.