Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Croatia and Ghana will meet in a FIFA World Cup Group L match at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with the market resolving solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. A YES share in this prediction market means you are betting that the match will end with one of the explicitly listed exact scores; a NO share means you believe the result will be any other score, including a draw or a score not listed. The current crowd-implied probability of 12% YES suggests the market views a specific exact score as a relatively unlikely outcome, which is typical in soccer where goal distributions are wide and unpredictable.

Historically, World Cup group matches between mid-tier European and African nations often produce low-scoring results, with 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 being the most frequent exact scores. For instance, Ghana’s 2010 quarter-final against Uruguay ended 1–1 after extra time, while Croatia’s 2018 World Cup run included several 1–0 and 2–1 victories. These comparable cases indicate that a 12% probability for a specific exact score is plausible if the market is pricing in a narrow outcome like 1–0 Croatia, which aligns with Croatia’s slight defensive advantage and Ghana’s recent form showing one win, one draw, and no losses in Group L [2].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements from both squads, particularly any late changes to line-ups or tactical shifts, as these can significantly alter scoring probabilities. Ghana’s head coach Carlos Queiroz and key player Antoine Semenyo have addressed the press ahead of the match, offering insights into team readiness [10]. Additionally, weather conditions in Philadelphia and any in-game momentum shifts—such as early goals or defensive errors—will be critical catalysts. The match is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET, and all settlement depends on the result after 90 minutes, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.