Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, Senegal and Iraq will face off in a FIFA World Cup Group I match at Toronto’s BMO Field, with the market resolving on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. A YES share in this prediction market means you are betting that the final score will match one of the explicitly listed outcomes; a NO share means you believe the score will be something else, resolving the market to “Any Other Score.” Here, the crowd-implied probability for a specific listed score is just 4%, reflecting the rarity of exact-score outcomes in football.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup matches rarely exceed 5–7% probability unless one team is a dominant favourite with a clear tactical pattern. For instance, Senegal’s 2002 quarter-final run saw them win 3–1 against Sweden, but such precise outcomes are uncommon; most matches end in 1–0, 2–1, or 1–1 scores. Iraq, meanwhile, has struggled to score consistently in recent World Cups, with their last goal coming in 2004. The current 4% probability aligns with these precedents, suggesting the market views the exact score as a low-probability event.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, injury updates, and tactical shifts announced by both coaches, as these can drastically alter scoring patterns. Recent training footage shows Iraq preparing defensively ahead of Senegal, with coach Graham Arnold emphasising a compact shape [7]. Additionally, check for any weather advisories in Toronto, as rain could slow the game and reduce goal frequency. With the settlement window ending at 19:00 UTC on 26 June, all relevant news must be assessed before the match begins to avoid missing critical catalysts.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.