SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX is preparing to launch its thirteenth Starship test flight, a mission that was cleanly aborted at T-0 on Thursday, 16 July after some engines failed to start [2][4]. The rocket, utilising Booster 20 and Ship 40, is now targeting a new launch date of NET 17 July 2026, with a 90-minute window opening at 22:45 UTC [2][9]. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if this specific event occurs successfully, while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current 0% crowd-implied probability for YES reflects that the flight has not yet happened and the previous attempt was scrubbed [2].

Historically, Starship test flights have frequently faced last-minute scrubs or delays due to engine anomalies, weather, or range constraints, yet SpaceX has consistently recycled quickly to attempt again within days [4][11]. Previous flights, such as Flight 10 and 12, also encountered aborts but proceeded to successful launches shortly after, suggesting that a 0% probability before the next attempt is a temporary market state rather than a permanent verdict on the mission’s viability [1][11].

Traders should monitor SpaceX’s official launch schedule and Elon Musk’s updates for a confirmed new launch time, as the company has stated another attempt will happen “hopefully” in a few days [4]. Key catalysts include the resolution of the engine-start issue, any FAA advisory notices, and the completion of final pre-flight checks following the static fire of Booster 20 [2][8]. A new launch date has not yet been officially announced, so the market remains in a waiting state until SpaceX confirms the next window [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.