Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover. This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Carballes Baena and Carlos Sanchez Jover in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena… on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →