Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of iasi: cezar cretu vs gustavo heide. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Cezar Cretu and Gustavo Heide in the Iasi, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cr…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Iasi: Cezar Cretu vs Gustavo Heide on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →