Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Match O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Match O/U 21.5 | 33% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker | 31% |
| Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker Set 1 Winner | 17% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 76% probability to swiss open: alexander shevchenko vs dominic stephan stricker. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Shevchenko and Dominic Stephan Stricker in the Swiss Open, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'A…
Methodology
We track Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Dominic Stephan Stricker across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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