Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Fulham FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crystal Palace O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crystal Palace O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Fulham FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Crystal Palace 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Crystal Palace 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Fulham FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Crystal Palace 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Fulham FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Fulham FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Crystal Palace 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Fulham FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Crystal Palace (-1.5) | 0% |
| Fulham FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Crystal Palace (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Fulham FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Fulham FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Crystal Palace O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace - More Markets. More markets for the Club Friendlies game, scheduled for August 7 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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