Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas

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Market context

The real-world event is a Twenty20 cricket match between Washington Freedom and Seattle Orcas, scheduled for 25 June 2026 in Major League Cricket at Oakland Coliseum. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the named outcome occurs—here, that Washington Freedom wins—while a NO share pays out if they do not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes Washington Freedom has virtually no chance of victory, likely due to Seattle Orcas’ dominant recent form against them.

Historical matches show Seattle Orcas have repeatedly beaten Washington Freedom comprehensively. In the 9th match of MLC 2026, Seattle won by 88 runs after scoring 219, while in the 3rd match they secured a 5-wicket victory. Only in the 4th match did Washington Freedom win by 5 wickets, but that was an outlier in a series of Orcas triumphs. This pattern frames the 0% probability as a rational reflection of Orcas’ superiority, not an arbitrary market guess.

Traders should monitor official team announcements, player availability, and any weather updates before the match, as these can shift odds. While no recent news source has reported injuries, the MLC schedule lists the fixture for 25 June, and any delay or change could affect settlement. The match will be resolved using the final result from espncricinfo.com, including Super Overs if tied. With the settlement window ending 21:30 UTC on 2 July 2026, all on-field rulings count as ordinary wins.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.