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Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Prediction Market UK.

Map 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5) 100% Volume: $838K Liquidity: $817K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)61%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs Luminosity (+6.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-9.5) vs Luminosity (+9.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)40%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.540%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.527%
Match Winner7%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-9.5) vs NIP (+9.5)1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Luminosity (-6.5) vs NIP (+6.5)1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Luminosity (+3.5)1%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: LG (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-9.5) vs Luminosity (+9.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-12.5) vs Luminosity (+12.5)0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.50%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to counter-strike: luminosity vs nip (bo3) - xse pro league group stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Luminosity and NIP in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 3 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Luminosi…

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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