How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports W…

Name: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival
Start: 2026-07-12T16:52:51.875Z
End: 2026-07-14T22:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	87%	13%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	See live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	87%	13%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	See live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	See live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	See live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Game 1 Winner	87%
Match Winner	84%
Game 2 Winner	73%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)	68%
First Blood in Game 1?	51%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?	50%
Any Player Rampage	48%
O/U 2.5 Games	38%

Market context

Market consensus: 87% chance of dota 2: lgd gaming vs mouz (bo3) - esports world cup survival. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between LGD Gaming and MOUZ in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolv…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporterand

Emma RobertsFinancial Journalist

Trade Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup… on Prediction Market UK

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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup… on Prediction Market UK

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