Jordan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international football match between Jordan and Colombia is scheduled for 7 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Jordan will win the match in regular time; a NO share bets on any other outcome (Colombia victory or a draw). The current crowd-implied probability of 2% for a Jordan win reflects the substantial gap in competitive strength between the two nations. Settlement occurs at the close of the match on that date.

Colombia has consistently ranked among the top 20 national teams globally over the past decade, whilst Jordan typically sits outside the top 100. Historical head-to-head records and qualification patterns show Colombia as a clear favourite in any fixture between them. Friendly matches do introduce variability—squad rotation, preparation focus, and travel fatigue can shift outcomes—but the baseline expectation remains heavily skewed towards the stronger side. A 2% probability for Jordan aligns with how prediction markets typically price substantial underdog positions in football when the gap in playing strength is this pronounced.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations as the June date approaches, particularly whether Colombia fields a full-strength or experimental lineup. The timing relative to other international commitments matters; if Colombia has a major tournament immediately before or after, they may prioritise rest over performance in a friendly. Jordan's domestic league schedule and any injury updates will also influence their preparation level. Recent FIFA rankings and any pre-match media commentary from coaching staff can signal tactical intent or confidence levels closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.