Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 24% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, argentina vs. egypt - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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