Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 73% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 66% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 51% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 23% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 16% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 99% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for July 7 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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