Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 17% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props stands at 80% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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