Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Colombia O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| Team to Advance | 80% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Colombia O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 50% |
| Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ghana O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score | 40% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Colombia (-1.5) | 37% |
| Ghana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Colombia O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 20% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Colombia (-2.5) | 16% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| Ghana O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Colombia (-3.5) | 7% |
| Colombia (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 8.5 | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Ghana (-1.5) | 3% |
| Ghana O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Ghana (-2.5) | 1% |
| Ghana (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Colombia (-5.5) | 1% |
| Ghana (-4.5) | 0% |
| Ghana (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of colombia vs. ghana - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Colombia vs. Ghana - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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