Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
17% | 83% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
17% | 83% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 17% |
| Spain 2 - 0 Austria | 15% |
| Spain 1 - 0 Austria | 14% |
| Spain 3 - 0 Austria | 12% |
| Spain 2 - 1 Austria | 11% |
| Spain 1 - 1 Austria | 9% |
| Spain 3 - 1 Austria | 8% |
| Spain 0 - 0 Austria | 6% |
| Spain 0 - 1 Austria | 3% |
| Spain 2 - 2 Austria | 3% |
| Spain 3 - 2 Austria | 3% |
| Spain 1 - 2 Austria | 2% |
| Spain 0 - 2 Austria | 1% |
| Spain 2 - 3 Austria | 1% |
| Spain 3 - 3 Austria | 1% |
| Spain 0 - 3 Austria | 0% |
| Spain 1 - 3 Austria | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, spain vs. austria - exact score stands at 17% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Spain vs. Austria …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Spain vs. Austria - Exact Score on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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