France vs. Iraq - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France meet Iraq in a FIFA World Cup group match in Philadelphia, with kick-off listed for 22 June at 9:00 pm UTC, which is 5:00 pm local time. In this market, a **YES** share pays out if any additional listed market for this game appears before the settlement window closes at 9:00 pm UTC on 22 June; a **NO** share pays out if no further market is added by then. [4][3]

A crowd-implied probability of **73% YES** suggests traders think another related market is more likely than not, but not certain. That kind of price is usually best read as a statement about expectation rather than inevitability: for a high-profile World Cup fixture, operators often add derivatives such as goals, cards, player props, or result-based side markets once line-ups and match context become clearer. France’s strong favourite status in pre-match betting, alongside an established broadcast and media footprint, makes it plausible that more trading interest could emerge close to kick-off. [1][3]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the event page adds fresh markets before the deadline, whether line-ups and injury updates sharpen demand, and whether any scheduling or market-creation changes are announced by the venue or platform. FIFA’s official match centre already lists the fixture, kick-off time and referee, while ESPN’s preview confirms the broadcast setup across major markets, both of which point to an active pre-match information flow that can trigger new market launches. [4][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.