France vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, France and Sweden will face off in a FIFA World Cup match in Canada, with the outcome of the first 90 minutes determining the result for prediction markets. A YES share in this market means you believe the match will end with the exact score listed in the contract; a NO share means you expect any other outcome. The current crowd-implied probability of 3% YES suggests traders view this specific scoreline as highly unlikely, reflecting the competitive gap between the two sides.

Historically, France has dominated this fixture, winning five of eight meetings since 2005 with no victories for Sweden, and Sweden’s coach has stated they must be “perfect” to beat France[4][5]. In past World Cup encounters between top-tier and mid-tier European teams, exact-score outcomes with large goal differentials rarely exceed 5% probability, aligning with the current 3% pricing. This pattern frames the market as one where the underdog’s chance of a precise upset is minimal, reinforcing the low YES valuation.

Traders should monitor pre-match training updates, squad announcements, and any weather or pitch conditions that could alter scoring dynamics. France’s recent training session featured stars like Mbappé and Dembélé, indicating full-strength availability[3], while Sweden’s lineup includes Isak and Gyökeres, key offensive threats[2]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts from either side, as reported by BBC Sport or ESPN UK, could shift the probability significantly[7][4]. With the settlement window ending 30 June 2026 at 21:00 UTC, timing and real-time data are critical dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track France vs. Sweden - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.