Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany face Côte d’Ivoire in a World Cup group match in Toronto, with the scheduled kick-off set for 4:00 p.m. ET on 20 June 2026. In a prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if the market’s condition is met by the settlement time; a **NO** share pays out if it is not, so the current 39% YES price implies traders are assigning a little under a two-in-five chance that the “more markets” category will resolve in the affirmative.

That price should be read as a forecast for whether the exchange will add further sub-markets to this fixture before the settlement window closes, not as a view on the result itself. Comparable World Cup fixtures often generate extra markets when line-ups, referee appointments, goal scorer listings, cards, corners and other stat-based angles are confirmed close to kick-off, so the key comparison is whether this match looks likely to attract enough new pricing depth to trigger additional listings. FIFA’s match centre already has the fixture in its first-stage schedule, which anchors the event date, while ESPN lists the same kick-off and venue details, helping traders distinguish between the fixed game and the variable menu of derivative markets. [5][3]

The main catalysts are announcement-driven rather than match-performance-driven: line-ups, injury updates, referee confirmation, and any platform decision to expand coverage as trading interest builds. Because the settlement window ends shortly after kick-off, any newly posted markets close to start time are especially relevant, and traders will watch whether book-style operators and prediction venues continue to add props once team news becomes official. ESPN’s recent match preview confirms the broadcast and start-time details, which usually means the market focus shifts from *whether the game happens* to *how many distinct ways it can be priced*. [3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.