Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia’s meeting with Japan is a World Cup group game decided on the scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, which is what this market settles on; extra time and penalties do not count. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if that exact scoreline happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not, including if the match finishes with any other score. Japan came into the fixture with the stronger recent profile in public previews, and live coverage described Tunisia as needing a response against difficult opposition.[1][2]

A 3% crowd-implied probability suggests traders think this precise scoreline is possible but uncommon. That is normal for exact-score markets, because there are many ways for a football match to finish and only one way for a given score to land. In comparable World Cup fixtures, the market is usually driven more by expected style of play and goal volume than by who is favoured outright: a tight, low-scoring match makes 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 more plausible, while an open game shifts attention towards higher totals and “any other score”.[2][3]

The main catalysts are the confirmed teams, any late injury or rotation news, and the match’s actual tempo once it kicks off. If one side is expected to attack aggressively or must chase a result, that can push the distribution away from cautious scorelines; if the game starts evenly, exact-score probabilities often remain spread across several low-scoring outcomes. Because the fixture is already scheduled and the market settlement is tied to the final regulation-time score, the key watchpoint is whether the match proceeds as planned rather than any extra-time scenario.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.