PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday is an annual PGA Tour event held at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, typically contested in early June. A YES share represents a wager that one of the listed players will claim the tournament title; a NO share bets that either an unlisted competitor wins or that a listed player becomes ineligible under tournament rules. The settlement window closes on 7 June 2026, shortly after the event concludes.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state before the field is finalised and odds-making begins in earnest. Historically, Memorial winners have included both established tour regulars and occasional surprises—Scottie Scheffler won in 2023, whilst Collin Morikawa claimed it in 2021. The tournament's prestige and mid-season timing mean form leading into June matters considerably; players peaking after spring events or major championships tend to feature prominently. Comparable PGA Tour markets show that listed-player probabilities typically shift sharply once withdrawal deadlines pass and final field confirmations arrive, often within two weeks of play.

Key catalysts include official field announcements, injury updates to prominent contenders, and recent tournament results from May 2026 events. Weather conditions at Muirfield Village—which can favour either long-hitters or precision iron players depending on course setup—will influence individual odds once practice rounds commence. Tour form, course history, and equipment changes announced by manufacturers in the months prior all feed into trader positioning. Monitoring PGA Tour communications and sports news outlets covering player fitness and scheduling will provide the most reliable signals for market movement ahead of settlement.

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.