Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 22.5 | 99% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston | 80% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of braunschweig: jan choinski vs hugo gaston. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jan Choinski and Hugo Gaston in the Braunschweig, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston on Prediction Market UK
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