Swiss Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovic

Platform comparison

Market context

The Swiss Open match between Kilian Feldbausch and Miomir Kecmanovic is set to determine which player advances in the tournament, with the market currently pricing Feldbausch’s chance of winning at 30%. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs—here, if Feldbausch beats Kecmanovic—while a NO share pays out if he does not. The settlement window closes on 20 July 2026, and if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a result, the market resolves to a 50–50 split.

Historically, lower-ranked players like Feldbausch, who sits at ATP No. 262 as of 13 July 2026, face steep odds against higher-ranked opponents in early-round matches, especially at ATP-level events like the Swiss Open [8]. Comparable cases show that when a player ranked below 250 meets one ranked in the top 100, the market-implied probability for the lower-ranked player often ranges between 20% and 35%, aligning closely with the current 30% YES price. This reflects the structural advantage held by established players in terms of consistency, experience, and ranking-based seeding.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding player fitness, schedule changes, or weather delays, as these can shift probabilities sharply. Kecmanovic’s recent form and any injury updates will be key catalysts, alongside official ATP tour confirmations on match timing [2]. Since the match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 13 July, any delay beyond the seven-day window triggers the 50–50 resolution, making timing a critical dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.