ODI Series Ireland vs West Indies, Women: Ireland vs West Indies

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, Ireland Women face West Indies Women in the second ODI of their bilateral series in Ireland. The prediction market asks whether West Indies will win this specific match, with a YES share representing a bet on that outcome and a NO share representing a bet that they will not. The crowd currently implies a 0% chance of a West Indies victory, suggesting traders expect Ireland to win or the match to end without a West Indies triumph.

Historically, West Indies Women have dominated this fixture in recent encounters. In the first ODI of the same series, West Indies chased down the target with ease, winning by nine wickets, while a prior Tri-Series match saw them secure an eight-wicket victory [2][3][4]. Such commanding performances typically anchor high win probabilities, yet the current 0% implied probability is an extreme outlier that may reflect unresolved uncertainties about team availability, pitch conditions, or a potential withdrawal rather than a genuine expectation of defeat.

Traders should monitor official squad announcements from the Ireland and West Indies cricket boards, as well as any weather updates for the Dublin venue, which could trigger a DLS adjustment or match abandonment. ESPNcricinfo, the designated settlement source, will publish the final result, including any Super Over outcomes if the match ends tied [1]. A sudden shift from 0% would likely follow confirmation of West Indies’ participation or a change in playing conditions that alters the competitive balance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.