ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New Zealand and Ireland are scheduled to play a group match in the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup, with the result settled by the official scorecard published on ESPNcricinfo. For a newcomer to prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if New Zealand win under the market rules, while a **NO** share pays out if they do not; that includes a loss, a tie without a super over winner, or any official result that awards the match to Ireland instead.[8][3]

The current crowd price of **0% YES** implies the market is treating a New Zealand win as effectively impossible, which is unusual for a side with a strong recent record in women’s global tournaments. New Zealand are the defending champions from the 2024 Women’s T20 World Cup, and their meeting with Ireland sits in the middle of the group phase rather than in a knockout, so form, selection and net run-rate pressure all matter more than reputation alone.[4][8] In prediction-markets terms, prices can stay extreme when traders see a result as one-sided, but they can also move sharply if the market has not yet fully absorbed late team news.[3]

The main catalysts to watch are the official team announcement, toss information, weather and any schedule changes, because these can affect whether the game is shortened, delayed or played under revised conditions. A shortened match still resolves normally if the match referee and playing conditions produce a winner, including by on-field tiebreaks such as a super over; only a genuine no-result would change the settlement outcome.[8][3] Live broadcasters and match schedules already list the fixture as underway or imminent, so any late update from the ICC or Cricbuzz-style score pages is more relevant than pre-match speculation.[1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.