ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Market context

A cricket match between West Indies and New Zealand is scheduled for 16 July 2026 in Guyana as part of their five-match ODI series, with this market asking whether West Indies will win that specific game. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs (West Indies wins), while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current 5% YES price implies traders expect New Zealand to win by a significant margin.

Historically, West Indies have struggled against New Zealand in recent ODIs, often losing by large margins or failing to chase modest targets, which aligns with the low probability assigned to a West Indies victory. For instance, in the 2nd ODI of this series, New Zealand chased 141 with five wickets in hand to square the match, while West Indies were restricted to 138 in 36 overs, highlighting the batting fragility that continues to define their campaign [5]. Such patterns of narrow margins or outright collapses have repeatedly suppressed West Indies win probabilities in comparable fixtures.

Traders should monitor the playing conditions and team announcements for the 3rd ODI, particularly any changes to the batting lineup or weather delays that could trigger a DLS adjustment, as these factors directly influence resolution. The match starts at 13:30 GMT on 15 July (local time 16 July) at Providence Stadium, Guyana, and broadcast details confirm TNT Sports will carry the series in the UK, offering real-time updates on team performance [1][2]. Any late injury news or squad rotation from either side, especially from New Zealand’s depth-stacked batting, could shift the implied probability before the settlement window closes on 23 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.