ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the West Indies women's cricket team will face New Zealand in a T20 World Cup group-stage match. A YES share represents a bet that West Indies will win; a NO share bets on a New Zealand victory or tie. The settlement window closes on 20 June, giving three days after the scheduled match date for final results to be published on ESPNcricinfo. Any result determined by on-field methods—including Super Overs in case of a tie—counts as an ordinary win for resolution purposes.

The current 100% YES probability reflects the market's assessment that West Indies are heavy favourites, though this warrants scrutiny against recent T20 World Cup form. New Zealand's women have been consistent semi-final performers in recent tournaments, whilst West Indies have shown volatility in knockout stages. Historical head-to-head records in T20 internationals show competitive matchups; neither side has dominated the fixture decisively. The extreme probability suggests either strong underlying data favouring West Indies or limited trading activity in this particular market pairing.

Key variables to monitor include squad announcements and injury updates, typically released 7–10 days before group matches. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground will influence whether the match favours West Indies' aggressive batting approach or New Zealand's disciplined bowling. Weather forecasts for 13 June in the host nation should be checked closer to the date, as rain could trigger Duckworth-Lewis-Stern adjustments that alter match dynamics. Any late withdrawal or format change would be announced via the ICC's official channels and ESPNcricinfo.

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.