Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Market UK Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Market UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: eSuba (-9.5) vs Coalesce (+9.5) | 10% eSuba | 90% Coalesce |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% Over | 90% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% Over | 10% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: eSuba (-9.5) vs Coalesce (+9.5) | 10% eSuba | 90% Coalesce |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: eSuba (-3.5) vs Coalesce (+3.5) | 90% eSuba | 10% Coalesce |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: eSuba (-6.5) vs Coalesce (+6.5) | 90% eSuba | 10% Coalesce |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 10% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between Coalesce and eSuba in the United21 Group A, initially scheduled for June 19 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Coalesce" if Coal…
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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