Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Market UK Pick polygram.ink |
53% | 47% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
53% | 47% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Market UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Winner | 53% MOUZ | 48% Legacy |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% MOUZ | 42% Legacy |
| Match Winner | 56% MOUZ | 45% Legacy |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% Over | 54% Under |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) | 34% MOUZ | 67% Legacy |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 36% MOUZ | 64% Legacy |
Market context
Market consensus: 53% chance of counter-strike: mouz vs legacy (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between MOUZ and Legacy in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 11 at 7:30AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?
- Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne M… on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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