Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 9:00 PM ET, the defending champions Argentina will face Switzerland in the FIFA World Cup quarter-finals at Kansas City, with a sellout crowd expected. This prediction market asks whether the match will end in an exact score of 10% YES, meaning the final result after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time matches a specific listed outcome; a YES share pays out if that score occurs, while a NO share wins if it does not. The market closes if the match is postponed, remaining open until completion, but resolves to "Any Other Score" if the actual result is not one of the explicitly listed options.

Historically, Argentina and Switzerland have met four times in World Cup history, with Argentina winning three and drawing once, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Switzerland’s 0.5 [1][8]. Switzerland’s recent quarter-final breakthrough, their first since 1954 after defeating Colombia on penalties, signals a shift in form [2][6]. Yet, Argentina’s dominance in past encounters, including Messi’s personal record of three wins against Switzerland [9], suggests that a specific exact score like 10% is statistically rare, aligning with the current low crowd-implied probability.

Traders should monitor pre-match squad announcements, particularly regarding Messi’s fitness and Switzerland’s defensive line following their penalty win [7]. The match odds show Argentina as favourites at -140, with a total goals line of over 2.5 at +125, hinting at a likely high-scoring game [3]. Any delay in kick-off due to weather or stadium issues could extend the settlement window, so checking official FIFA updates before the 2026-07-12T01:00:00Z deadline is essential [4]. Recent coverage confirms the quarter-final stakes and the high-pressure environment in Kansas City [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.