Australia vs. Türkiye - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will see Australia face Türkiye on 14 June at 12:00 AM ET. This market resolves YES only if the final score matches one of the explicitly listed outcomes after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any other result settles as "Any Other Score." A YES share pays out if you correctly predict the exact scoreline; a NO share pays out if the result differs from your chosen prediction. The 9% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting precise match outcomes—even favoured scorelines rarely exceed 15–20% likelihood in football markets.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in international football typically concentrate probability across a narrow band of outcomes. Draws and low-scoring results (0–0, 1–1, 1–0) command the highest individual probabilities, usually 8–12% each, whilst higher-scoring lines fragment into single-digit percentages. Australia and Türkiye have limited recent head-to-head data; their last competitive meeting was a 2015 AFC Asian Cup qualifier. Both nations qualified for 2026 as mid-tier sides, suggesting matches between them tend toward competitive, tightly contested affairs rather than goal-heavy contests.

Team news and squad availability will shape expectations as June approaches. Injury updates to key players—particularly Australia's attacking options and Türkiye's defensive spine—typically emerge in the fortnight before tournament fixtures. Fixture congestion in the group stage may influence tactical setup and fatigue levels. Bettors should monitor official FIFA communications regarding venue confirmation and any scheduling changes, as the tournament structure and pitch conditions can materially affect scoring patterns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.